SISTEM PREDIKSI PRODUKSI PADI DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR MENGGUNAKAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BERBASIS WEB

  • Nungqi Libasut Taqwa S1 Teknik Informatika, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi, Universitas Hasyim Asy’ari
  • I Kadek Dwi Nuryana Fakultas Teknologi Informasi, Universitas Hasyim Asy’ari
  • Anita Andriani D3 Manajemen Informatika, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi, Universitas Hasyim Asy’ari

Abstract

Most of the population of East Java Province works in the agriculture sector. One of the main agricultural
products produced in East Java is rice. Nearly 39.29% of the population of East Java who live in regencies
or cities depend on rice as their main livelihood. Rice is a strategic commodity because it is needed as the
main source of calories. So that availability is always met, careful planning is needed. One way to control
rice production is by forecasting. In this article, forecasting of production in East Java Province is carried
out using the Exponential Smoothing method implemented on a website. Exponential Smoothing Method is
one of the forecasting methods that utilizes time series data that provides exponential weighting of past
data. Errors in forecasting are calculated using MAD, MSE, and MAPE. The data used are rice production
from 29 regencies and 6 cities in East Java in 2007 - 2017. The system created gives good results. For
example for Jombang Regency, in 2018 it is predicted to produce 442,618 tons of rice with forecast errors
for MAD, MSE, and MAPE of 44.39 each; 18.29; and 16.68%.
Keywords: Exponential Smoothing, Rice, MAD, MSE, MAPE

Published
2019-09-22